Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:35:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3A 0x3aa8…e33e sports 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$468 (+4%) realized +$475 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate72%91W / 36L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$90est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$143now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$119
7 days+$344
14 days+$342
30 days+$385
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$406
crypto 1% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +15.2% +4.2% 80% 73% +16.7%
≤30d 127 -2.8% -12.0% 72% 51% -6.4%
≤90d 127 -2.8% -12.0% 72% 51% -6.4%
all 127 -2.8% -12.0% 72% 51% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 51% -6.4%
10% -20.5% 31% -15.3%
15% -28.1% 19% -23.5%
20% -35.2% 8% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$40 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$143
Realized+$475
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses91 / 36
Est. fees paid−$90
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage28d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 77¢ 74¢ $150 $143 −$7 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $101 +$45 +44%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $172 +$75 +43%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 +$27 +27%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $100 +$11 +11%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$38 +38%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 −$6 -6%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $146 +$64 +43%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $18 +$8 +42%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $66 +$24 +36%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $102 +$13 +13%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $41 +$30 +74%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $61 +$33 +54%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $56 +$5 +8%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $100 +$14 +14%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $161 −$49 -30%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $301 −$300 -100%
LoL: CITA Kaizen vs Partizan Sangal - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $101 +$4 +4%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia Jun 09 $301 +$22 +7%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 2 Winn Jun 09 $100 +$7 +7%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $301 +$26 +9%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 09 $100 +$5 +5%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $100 +$10 +10%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $150 +$9 +6%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 09 $42 +$3 +7%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $362 +$79 +22%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $49 +$17 +36%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $63 −$1 -2%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $202 −$86 -43%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $51 −$43 -84%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $5 +$1 +16%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $61 −$60 -99%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $100 +$13 +13%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $51 +$57 +112%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $71 −$70 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $141 +$2 +2%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $50 −$1 -2%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $51 +$32 +63%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $61 +$40 +66%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $81 +$20 +25%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $31 +$37 +122%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $51 +$27 +54%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $100 +$17 +17%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $101 +$20 +20%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $112 +$25 +23%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $71 +$29 +41%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $100 +$41 +41%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $6 −$1 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 74¢ $71 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 80¢ $80 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 95¢ $146 17h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $101 19h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $246 20h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 69¢ $71 25h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 69¢ $101 25h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 90¢ $128 2d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $101 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $111 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 95¢ $139 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY KT Rolster Challengers 89¢ $100 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $101 3d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 69¢ $95 3d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 72¢ $101 3d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $210 3d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $45 3d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 71¢ $101 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 34¢ $26 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 23¢ $18 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 1¢ $1 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $3 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 78¢ $62 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 60¢ $51 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster 36¢ $24 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 22¢ $15 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 58¢ $115 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 50¢ $102 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 20¢ $20 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 85¢ $71 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.12 · official $143.12 (match) · 284 history records