Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:28:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3A 0x3aad…705f crypto 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15,231 (-14%) realized −$15,327 · open +$96
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%67W / 72L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$765per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$596now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days+$133
14 days−$55
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$13,425
sports 5% −$4,356
other 2% +$387
world 0% −$115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -14.6% -22.8% 57% 43% -4.3%
≤30d 10 -40.2% -45.9% 40% 30% -11.5%
≤90d 139 -17.6% -25.4% 48% 47% -24.5%
all 139 -17.6% -25.4% 48% 47% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 47% -24.5%
10% -32.6% 43% -31.7%
15% -39.1% 39% -38.3%
20% -45.0% 27% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$1,000) neutral
Persistence
early -20% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$399 vs −$616 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$596
Realized−$15,327
Unrealized+$96
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses67 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage64d
Avg bet$765
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Jordan 83¢ 99¢ $500 $596 +$96 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $755 +$378 +50%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $241 −$240 -100%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $244 −$91 -37%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $302 +$4 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $183 +$59 +32%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $362 −$177 -49%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $389 +$201 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $116 −$115 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 215.5 Apr 23 $4,125 −$4,125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Apr 21 $2,598 +$1,527 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Apr 21 $3,500 −$3,500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 21 $1,846 +$754 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 20 $3,333 −$3,333 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 20 $2,600 −$2,600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 20 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 20 $3,800 +$1,290 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 20 $300 +$130 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 20 $7,200 −$1,163 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Apr 20 $1,000 +$391 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 20 $1,600 +$634 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 20 $700 +$20 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 20 $2,200 −$1,040 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Apr 20 $924 +$129 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 20 $800 +$287 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 20 $2,600 +$504 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10AM ET Apr 20 $2,500 +$411 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 20 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 20 $1,037 +$282 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 20 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 20 $1,110 +$1,045 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 20 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 20 $1,000 +$498 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 20 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 20 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Apr 20 $900 −$900 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 20 $400 +$139 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 20 $300 +$131 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 20 $500 +$422 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 20 $1,200 +$528 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 20 $801 −$801 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 20 $900 +$582 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 20 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 20 $455 −$455 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Apr 20 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 20 $1,445 +$671 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 20 $1,900 +$743 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 20 $700 −$700 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 20 $539 −$539 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 83¢ $503 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $755 3h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 82¢ $241 3h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 39¢ $153 6h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $33 7h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $15 7h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $189 7h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $2 7h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $5 7h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 82¢ $306 9h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 80¢ $302 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $242 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $183 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $271 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $182 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $181 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $385 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $116 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 78¢ $42 7d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 215.5 BUY Under 67¢ $3,939 63d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 215.5 BUY Under 83¢ $186 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $552 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $570 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $730 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $746 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2,600 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $835 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1,011 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $596.08 · official $598.19 (match) · 517 history records