trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +3.6% | -6.2% | 100% | 0% | -6.1% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +2.4% | -7.3% | 67% | 0% | -7.4% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +1.4% | -8.2% | 44% | 11% | -9.2% |
| all | 10 | +1.5% | -8.2% | 50% | 10% | -9.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.2% | 10% | -9.0% |
| 10% | -17.0% | 0% | -17.7% |
| 15% | -25.0% | 0% | -25.7% |
| 20% | -32.4% | 0% | -33.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? | No | 88¢ | 88¢ | $337 | $337 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 82¢ | 90¢ | $248 | $273 | +$26 (+10%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Jun 23 | $287 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by July 31? | Jun 22 | $311 | +$22 | +7% |
| Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? | Jun 03 | $352 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 24 | $322 | −$16 | -5% |
| Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | May 15 | $521 | −$12 | -2% |
| Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? | Apr 28 | $144 | +$20 | +14% |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Apr 25 | $418 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? | Apr 17 | $921 | +$4 | +0% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 02 | $456 | −$4 | -1% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Mar 25 | $685 | +$11 | +2% |