Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3ab1…5ff0 crypto 472 markets active 0h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$731 (-8%) realized −$731 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%233W / 239L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$24
14 days+$10
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$945
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +26.3% +14.2% 69% 69% +17.2%
≤30d 21 -9.1% -17.7% 48% 48% -5.6%
≤90d 337 -27.6% -34.5% 37% 37% -38.1%
all 472 -0.7% -10.1% 49% 48% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 48% -18.6%
10% -18.7% 48% -26.4%
15% -26.6% 47% -33.5%
20% -33.8% 44% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$19 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$731
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses233 / 239
Open positions0
Markets (closed)472 / 472
History coverage126d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 472 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$23 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET Jun 20 $19 +$12 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$10 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$16 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$9 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 04 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 03 $7 +$6 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 03 $10 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 14 $37 +$36 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 14 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 13 $3 +$3 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 13 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 13 $11 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 13 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 13 $4 +$4 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 13 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 13 $10 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 12 $2 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 12 $19 −$17 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 12 $10 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 12 $12 +$9 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 12 $6 +$6 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 12 $3 +$3 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 12 $5 −$4 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 12 $59 −$52 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 11 $33 +$26 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 10 $19 +$15 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 09 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 09 $10 −$7 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $31 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $23 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $11 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 931 history records