Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:49:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3A 0x3ab3…9cd6 weather 229 markets active 2h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$290 (+4%) realized +$290 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate74%169W / 60L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$44
14 days+$43
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% +$147
world 18% +$33
sports 17% +$36
crypto 15% −$73
politics 12% +$92
weather 7% +$14
finance 2% +$4
tech 2% +$12
economics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.5% -10.0% 82% 12% -6.2%
≤30d 33 +3.0% -6.8% 85% 30% -6.5%
≤90d 188 -2.1% -11.4% 71% 35% -6.8%
all 229 +1.3% -8.3% 74% 37% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 37% -6.6%
10% -17.1% 20% -15.5%
15% -25.1% 14% -23.7%
20% -32.4% 10% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$290
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses169 / 60
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)229 / 229
History coverage305d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 229 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $160 +$8 +5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $99 +$3 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $144 +$11 +8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $69 +$7 +10%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $65 +$4 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $60 +$5 +8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $47 +$4 +9%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$5 +5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Peru Presidential Election Invalidated? Jun 17 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $78 −$2 -2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $75 +$3 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $46 +$3 +6%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $67 +$2 +2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $27 +$1 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 +$4 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $40 −$13 -33%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $33 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $29 +$3 +11%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $40 +$6 +15%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $22 +$2 +11%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $58 +$3 +6%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $18 +$2 +8%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $15 +$3 +17%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $15 +$2 +12%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $3 +$1 +31%
LoL: Supernova vs Winthrop University (BO5) - North American Challenge May 27 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Nemiga (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Fin May 27 $4 +$2 +50%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs HAVU (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Sta May 27 $2 +$1 +67%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $2 $0 +10%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Dakarai Larriett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? May 21 $5 $0 -4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $10 −$7 -65%
Istanbul: Alafia Ayeni vs Franco Agamenone May 21 $4 $0 +6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 14 $43 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 14 $60 $0 -0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 14 $68 −$1 -2%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $78 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $100 −$32 -31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $63 +$4 +6%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in April? May 12 $50 +$3 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $54 +$9 +17%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 10 $40 +$3 +8%
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Au May 09 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $54 +$8 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 98¢ $168 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 93¢ $160 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 99¢ $102 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $56 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $99 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 24h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 98¢ $76 47h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 89¢ $69 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $69 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 94¢ $65 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $65 2d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 90¢ $68 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 93¢ $51 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $60 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 85¢ $47 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 97¢ $107 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $60 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 3d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 86¢ $80 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $42 3d
Peru Presidential Election Invalidated? SELL No 95¢ $42 3d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 81¢ $76 4d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 95¢ $76 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 97¢ $78 5d
Peru Presidential Election Invalidated? BUY No 97¢ $43 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 96¢ $75 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $46 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 98¢ $67 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 99¢ $28 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $39 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 488 history records