Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:06:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3A 0x3ab3…a9c2 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$833 (+8%) realized +$989 · open −$156
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%14W / 25L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$454now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$446
14 days+$998
30 days+$1,074
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$783
world 17% −$489
sports 2% −$60
culture 2% +$163
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +34.7% +21.9% 67% 67% +22.6%
≤30d 23 +7.8% -2.5% 43% 43% +5.6%
≤90d 39 -8.6% -17.3% 36% 33% -4.3%
all 39 -8.6% -17.3% 36% 33% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 33% -4.3%
10% -25.2% 31% -13.5%
15% -32.4% 26% -21.8%
20% -39.0% 23% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -21% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$295 vs −$143 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$454
Realized+$989
Unrealized−$156
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses14 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage67d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 40¢ 30¢ $609 $454 −$156 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $316 −$219 -69%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 +$2 +103%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $936 +$662 +71%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $466 +$242 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $133 −$132 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $380 −$278 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,005 +$310 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $513 −$446 -87%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $286 +$839 +293%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $327 −$315 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $368 −$131 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $188 +$297 +158%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $251 +$259 +103%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $61 −$7 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $210 −$49 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $34 −$4 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $74 −$73 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $341 −$164 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $225 +$368 +164%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $92 −$74 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $74 +$18 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $177 −$21 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $101 −$49 -49%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $141 −$141 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? May 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? May 22 $51 +$24 +47%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 22 $110 −$110 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? May 22 $109 +$300 +276%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $39 −$29 -74%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Drake feature Playboi Carti on ICEMAN? May 15 $140 +$2 +2%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? May 04 $1,139 −$1,139 -100%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $973 −$48 -5%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $620 +$791 +128%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $2 −$2 -95%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 23 $70 −$70 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $109 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $130 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $389 8h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $194 25h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $99 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $97 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 77¢ $4 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $289 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $312 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,503 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $706 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $707 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 7d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $133 9d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $95 9d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $103 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 9d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $362 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $102 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $311 10d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $713 10d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $602 10d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $601 10d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $69 11d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $67 11d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $226 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $118 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $453.71 · official $453.71 (match) · 123 history records