Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:28:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3A 0x3ab5…0adc other 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$376 (+21%) realized +$380 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$391now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$600
sports 6% −$69
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -5.1% -14.2% 31% 31% +43.0%
≤30d 16 -5.1% -14.2% 31% 31% +43.0%
≤90d 16 -5.1% -14.2% 31% 31% +43.0%
all 16 -5.1% -14.2% 31% 31% +43.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 31% +43.0%
10% -22.4% 25% +29.3%
15% -29.9% 25% +16.8%
20% -36.7% 19% +5.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +58% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$154 vs −$21 · ×7.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.31 per $1 lost it wins $3.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$391
Realized+$380
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage7d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $225 $228 +$3 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $150 $145 −$5 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $153 +$257 +168%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 France? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 France? Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $102 −$69 -67%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $21 −$10 -48%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $21 +$2 +11%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $15 −$4 -27%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $210 +$506 +242%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $5 +$3 +52%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $51 −$7 -13%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? Jun 26 $51 −$8 -16%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $152 −$8 -6%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $15 −$4 -25%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 26 $7 +$3 +48%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 26 $31 −$31 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? SELL Yes 100¢ $409 19m
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $34 32m
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 43m
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? SELL Yes 14¢ $23 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Spain? SELL Yes 3¢ $11 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 91¢ $716 5h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 5h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 26¢ $204 6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $432 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 26¢ $5 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 14h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 France? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 14h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 14h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? SELL Yes 11¢ $45 14h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? SELL Yes 8¢ $43 14h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 15h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 15h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 15h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 15h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 15h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 59¢ $143 16h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 16h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 16h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $513 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $10 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $152 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $391.47 · official $391.47 (match) · 47 history records