Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:32:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3A 0x3ab6…cfec sports 850 markets active 0h ago coverage 399d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,933 (-14%) realized −$4,913 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%224W / 614L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 399d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$5,337
sports 26% −$1,091
other 7% −$1,879
politics 5% −$143
tech 0% −$66
culture 0% −$41
world 0% −$35
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -19.1% -26.8% 25% 25% -23.5%
≤30d 82 -20.1% -27.7% 24% 24% -23.7%
≤90d 123 -41.3% -46.9% 18% 18% -35.8%
all 838 -27.3% -34.2% 27% 27% -34.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.2% 27% -34.9%
10% -40.5% 26% -41.1%
15% -46.2% 25% -46.8%
20% -51.5% 25% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$34 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

399d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$4,913
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses224 / 614
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)838 / 850
History coverage399d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 838 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $32 $9 −$23 (-73%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 286 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $105 +$98 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $136 −$80 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $156 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $365 +$103 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $252 −$53 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $132 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $157 +$237 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $183 −$10 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $106 −$11 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $218 −$9 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $57 +$48 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $132 −$50 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -95%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $23 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$22 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $106 +$244 +231%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $79 +$203 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $209 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $113 −$113 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $157 +$50 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $57 −$54 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $210 +$74 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $162 −$44 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $79 −$50 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $131 −$100 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $79 +$141 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $157 +$31 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $20 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $67 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $17 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $115 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 9m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.95 · official $24.95 · 2331 history records