Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:01:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

3A 0x3ac1…932e other 18 markets active 1d ago coverage 590d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$409 (+10%) realized +$409 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip

Net edge-50%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate31%5W / 11L

Drawdown54%max

Avg bet$238per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$130

7 days−$291

14 days−$291

30 days−$291

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-50.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-45.6%	-50.7%	29%	29%	-73.6%
≤30d	7	-45.6%	-50.7%	29%	29%	-73.6%
≤90d	7	-45.6%	-50.7%	29%	29%	-73.6%
all	16	-44.9%	-50.1%	31%	25%	-0.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-50.1%	25%	-0.8%
10%	-54.9%	19%	-10.3%
15%	-59.3%	19%	-19.0%
20%	-63.3%	12%	-26.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 80% · top 2 92% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -71% too few recent

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -45% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -37% → late -52% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$208 vs −$63 · ×3.3 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage

Net worth$20

Realized+$409

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)31%

Wins / losses5 / 11

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)16 / 18

History coverage590d

Avg bet$238

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown54%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	18¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	4¢	$10	$8	−$2 (-16%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$121	−$120	-99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 13	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$121	−$120	-99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$10	+$17	+165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$80	+$13	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3AM ET	Feb 11	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?	Jan 29	$30	−$30	-100%
US government shutdown Saturday?	Jan 27	$20	−$20	-100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	Jan 12	$50	−$50	-100%
UFC 322: Haddon vs. Wellmaker (Bantamweight, Prelims)	Jan 07	$200	$0	+0%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	Nov 16	$220	+$124	+56%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?	Nov 16	$199	−$199	-100%
Bitcoin above $70,000 on November 8?	Nov 11	$1,000	+$53	+5%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 07	$2,112	+$832	+39%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$121	26h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	35¢	$10	47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$20	4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	84¢	$50	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$111	4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	37¢	$10	6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	86¢	$80	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3AM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$10	127d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?	BUY Yes	59¢	$30	140d
US government shutdown Saturday?	BUY No	20¢	$20	142d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	BUY Yes	21¢	$50	157d
UFC 322: Haddon vs. Wellmaker (Bantamweight, Prelims)	BUY Wellmaker	50¢	$200	214d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	BUY T1	64¢	$120	221d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)	BUY T1	64¢	$100	221d
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?	BUY Yes	32¢	$199	579d
Bitcoin above $70,000 on November 8?	BUY Yes	95¢	$1,000	588d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	73¢	$1,999	589d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	56¢	$113	591d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.70 · official $19.70 (match) · 34 history records