Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:41:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3A 0x3ac2…f949 sports 534 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,717 (+4%) realized +$7,744 · open −$27
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%270W / 262L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$367per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$1,406est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$373now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 98d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$6,476
other 41% +$10,067
crypto 1% −$184
world 0% +$28
weather 0% −$29
politics 0% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -19.2% -26.9% 45% 45% -27.3%
≤30d 143 -10.8% -19.3% 50% 50% -15.3%
≤90d 516 -6.6% -15.5% 49% 49% -8.4%
all 532 -3.9% -13.0% 51% 50% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 50% -7.9%
10% -21.4% 49% -16.7%
15% -29.0% 47% -24.8%
20% -35.9% 36% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$281 vs −$276 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$373
Realized+$7,744
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses270 / 262
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$1,406
Open positions2
Markets (closed)532 / 534
History coverage98d
Avg bet$367
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 532 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $250 $252 +$2 (+1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $122 −$28 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 118 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $151 +$54 +36%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $224 +$107 +48%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $70 +$40 +57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $306 +$188 +61%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $181 +$127 +70%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $113 −$111 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $113 −$111 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $590 +$390 +66%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $140 −$69 -49%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $405 +$219 +54%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $70 −$69 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $152 +$154 +101%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $254 −$250 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $225 −$222 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $170 +$68 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $225 +$158 +70%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $113 −$111 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $94 +$91 +97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $335 −$333 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $336 +$176 +52%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 −$150 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $253 +$163 +64%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $225 +$154 +68%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $70 +$157 +223%
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals Jun 16 $255 −$250 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $154 −$150 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $113 +$105 +93%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $71 −$69 -98%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals Jun 16 $45 −$44 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $252 +$120 +48%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $462 +$570 +124%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $575 −$569 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $74 −$72 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,421 −$1,400 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $561 −$555 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $338 −$333 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $70 −$69 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $127 +$128 +101%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $253 −$250 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $490 +$407 +83%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $224 +$109 +48%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $70 −$69 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $224 +$117 +52%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $112 −$111 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 Jun 13 $171 −$169 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $225 −$222 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $205 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $252 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $151 4h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $70 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $224 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $494 20h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $204 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $54 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $308 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $252 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $181 25h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $113 42h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $113 42h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $980 42h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $253 46h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $70 46h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 40¢ $113 46h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 24¢ $71 46h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes $4 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $623 46h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 64¢ $70 47h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $337 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $405 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $254 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $152 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $225 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $382 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $170 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $113 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $186 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $373.33 · official $373.36 (match) · 1074 history records