Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:20:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

3A 0x3ac2…b9cd other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$153 (+53%) realized +$153 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip

Net edge+30%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown20%max

Avg bet$58per market

Trades / day1.3pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+30.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+44.0%	+30.3%	67%	67%	+65.2%
≤30d	3	+44.0%	+30.3%	67%	67%	+65.2%
≤90d	3	+44.0%	+30.3%	67%	67%	+65.2%
all	3	+44.0%	+30.3%	67%	67%	+65.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+30.3%	67%	+65.2%
10%	+17.8%	67%	+49.4%
15%	+6.4%	67%	+34.9%
20%	-4.0%	67%	+21.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 69% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +83% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +44% · $-wt +83% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$88 vs −$29 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×6.06 per $1 lost it wins $6.06

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$110

Realized+$153

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage6d

Avg bet$58

Trades / day1.3

Drawdown20%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Portugal	46¢	46¢	$70	$69	−$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Yes	32¢	32¢	$40	$41	+$1 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 21	$100	+$122	+122%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 21	$50	+$55	+110%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 17	$30	−$29	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	32¢	$41	1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Portugal	46¢	$71	1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL Yes	93¢	$222	47h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	41¢	$100	2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL Yes	28¢	$45	2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL Yes	38¢	$59	2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	15¢	$50	2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	20¢	$30	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.86 · official $109.86 (match) · 8 history records