Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:43:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3A 0x3ac3…b001 sports 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$82 (+12%) realized +$86 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate72%21W / 8L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$42
14 days−$42
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$110
other 20% +$8
world 18% −$40
politics 5% −$1
finance 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -37.7% -43.6% 40% 40% -44.5%
≤30d 8 -15.7% -23.7% 62% 62% -23.1%
≤90d 22 +26.8% +14.8% 86% 82% +11.5%
all 29 +29.0% +16.7% 72% 69% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.7% 69% +3.2%
10% +5.6% 45% -6.7%
15% -4.6% 31% -15.7%
20% -14.0% 24% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +57% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$21 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$86
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses21 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)29 / 33
History coverage145d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 90¢ 96¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? No 83¢ 82¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? No 76¢ 76¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 81¢ 62¢ $24 $19 −$5 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 24 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 24 $20 +$6 +29%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 18 $22 +$18 +83%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 03 $20 +$3 +15%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 03 $29 +$9 +32%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 26 $19 +$3 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 21 $12 +$2 +16%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 21 $11 +$6 +50%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 21 $15 +$7 +44%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $16 +$3 +20%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $17 +$2 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 05 $21 +$4 +19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 05 $23 +$2 +10%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 22 $15 +$28 +188%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 22 $20 +$25 +124%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 15 $13 +$4 +33%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 15 $20 +$13 +67%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 11 $13 +$2 +12%
Celtics vs. Hornets Apr 11 $21 +$19 +92%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Mar 29 $23 +$6 +27%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - LCK Challengers Le Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Mar 24 $7 +$47 +669%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Win Feb 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Knicks vs. Celtics Feb 18 $30 −$30 -100%
UFC 325: Finney vs. Malkoun (Middleweight, Prelims) Feb 07 $52 +$43 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $20 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $26 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 6d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $30 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $22 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $28 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $18 21d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 81¢ $24 21d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 75¢ $29 29d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 86¢ $19 34d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 72¢ $20 34d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 66¢ $11 40d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Spirit 69¢ $15 40d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $20 42d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $12 48d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY No 83¢ $16 49d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 87¢ $17 49d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $21 63d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY No 90¢ $23 63d
Warriors vs. Clippers BUY Warriors 34¢ $15 70d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Weibo Gaming 44¢ $20 70d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t BUY Yes 75¢ $13 74d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 74d
Celtics vs. Hornets BUY Celtics 52¢ $21 87d
Magic vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 79¢ $23 92d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY No 90¢ $13 92d
LoL: T1 Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - LCK Challengers Le BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 45¢ $10 119d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 BUY Yes 13¢ $7 121d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $22 121d
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly BUY Yes 43¢ $26 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.34 · official $96.34 (match) · 62 history records