Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:24:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3ac3…ea47 crypto 127 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate94%120W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day31.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -0.6% -10.0% 94% 2% -9.8%
≤30d 127 -0.6% -10.0% 94% 2% -9.8%
≤90d 127 -0.6% -10.0% 94% 2% -9.8%
all 127 -0.6% -10.0% 94% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 2% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 2% -18.4%
15% -26.5% 2% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$11 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses120 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)127 / 127
History coverage4d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day31.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 127 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$34 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $31 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $31 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $21 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $22 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $19 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $53 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $51 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $52 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 260 history records