Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:02:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3A 0x3ac5…b6d1 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%2W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% $0
politics 33% $0
culture 7% $0
sports 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 10 -0.0% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
all 15 -0.0% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses2 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage111d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $110 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $110 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 29 $110 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $110 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $110 $0 +0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $110 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $111 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 15 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $111 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 31 $112 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $112 $0 -0%
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $112 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $112 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 10 $112 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $112 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $110 1h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $110 15h
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $110 10d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $110 11d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $110 22d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $108 23d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $2 23d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $110 33d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $110 33d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $110 36d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $110 37d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $110 40d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $108 40d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 40d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $111 64d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $111 64d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $111 67d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $111 67d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $111 75d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $111 76d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $111 82d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 82d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $112 96d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $112 96d
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 100¢ $112 98d
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 100¢ $112 98d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $112 99d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $112 100d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $112 103d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $112 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records