Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:49:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3ac5…8d0a crypto 634 markets active 2d ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$308 (-2%) realized −$308 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate78%496W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$173
14 days−$173
30 days−$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$388
other 20% −$10
sports 5% +$62
world 2% +$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 82% 40% -18.1%
≤30d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 82% 40% -18.1%
≤90d 73 -0.2% -9.7% 82% 40% -18.1%
all 634 +2.0% -7.7% 78% 35% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 35% -11.6%
10% -16.5% 21% -20.0%
15% -24.6% 13% -27.8%
20% -32.0% 8% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$308
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses496 / 138
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)634 / 634
History coverage221d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 634 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $55 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $99 +$11 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $44 −$6 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +37%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $130 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $55 +$5 +9%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $70 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $24 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $36 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $24 −$19 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $7 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $59 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $55 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $99 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $45 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $38 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel SELL Diane Parry 95¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel BUY Diane Parry 95¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 95¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1907 history records