Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3A 0x3ac7…6ef2 world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$3
other 10% −$1
sports 5% $0
politics 2% +$2
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +31.5% +19.0% 38% 12% -9.7%
≤30d 15 +17.6% +6.4% 40% 7% -9.1%
≤90d 16 +10.3% -0.2% 38% 6% -9.4%
all 33 +8.0% -2.2% 52% 12% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 12% -8.9%
10% -11.6% 12% -17.7%
15% -20.1% 6% -25.6%
20% -28.0% 6% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage458d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $42 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $62 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $85 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $57 +$2 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $46 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $80 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $8 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $21 +$1 +6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $41 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $21 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $83 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $42 +$2 +5%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
MicroStrategy purchases >10000 BTC June 3-9? Jun 09 $6 $0 +2%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23? May 24 $2 $0 +28%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 05 $10 +$2 +25%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? Apr 22 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 20 $8 $0 -0%
Will Marcela-Lavinia Șandru advance to the Romanian Presidential Elect Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 44°F or below on March 18? Mar 17 $1 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $3 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $43 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $46 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $5 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $3 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $33 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $27 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $15 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $42 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $42 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $43 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 73¢ $16 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $22 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $45 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $46 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $30 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $33 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $45 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $47 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $15 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $15 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.90 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records