Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:21:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3ac7…4ff2 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$74 (-6%) realized −$79 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%14W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$18
14 days−$102
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$135
sports 11% +$14
world 3% +$8
crypto 2% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +3.3% -6.6% 53% 53% -12.7%
≤30d 25 +0.7% -8.9% 56% 52% -17.6%
≤90d 25 +0.7% -8.9% 56% 52% -17.6%
all 25 +0.7% -8.9% 56% 52% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 52% -17.6%
10% -17.6% 44% -25.5%
15% -25.6% 40% -32.7%
20% -32.9% 24% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$25 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses14 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)25 / 29
History coverage12d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $41 $44 +$3 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 −$14 -46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$10 -50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$7 +131%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +72%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 −$17 -41%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +51%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$17 +56%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $21 −$1 -7%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 +$9 +54%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $34 −$18 -53%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 +$10 +54%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $79 +$9 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$19 +47%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $250 −$105 -42%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $38 +$8 +22%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$29 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $114 +$6 +5%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $125 +$28 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $64 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 36¢ $16 12h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 29¢ $7 40h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $3 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $7 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $15 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $14 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $46 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $19 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $49 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 4d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.24 · official $169.24 (match) · 80 history records