Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:36:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3ac8…c8d5 sports 5 markets active 6h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$26 (-6%) realized +$19 · open −$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$14
other 19% −$11
world 12% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +19.6% +8.2% 67% 67% -5.1%
≤30d 3 +19.6% +8.2% 67% 67% -5.1%
≤90d 3 +19.6% +8.2% 67% 67% -5.1%
all 3 +19.6% +8.2% 67% 67% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.2% 67% -5.1%
10% -2.1% 67% -14.2%
15% -11.6% 67% -22.5%
20% -20.3% 67% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$120 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$19
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $79 $68 −$11 (-14%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Yes 35¢ 12¢ $52 $19 −$33 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $85 +$67 +79%
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 27 $84 +$66 +79%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 26 $121 −$120 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 32¢ $81 5h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 55¢ $84 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $52 27h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $85 28h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 57¢ $121 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.95 · official $86.95 (match) · 7 history records