Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:03:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

3A 0x3ac9…97f0 other 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$140 (+23%) realized +$135 · open +$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip

Net edge+4%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate67%8W / 4L

Drawdown50%max

Avg bet$43per market

Trades / day20.3pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+22.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	+35.4%	+22.5%	67%	50%	+8.9%
≤30d	12	+35.4%	+22.5%	67%	50%	+8.9%
≤90d	12	+35.4%	+22.5%	67%	50%	+8.9%
all	12	+35.4%	+22.5%	67%	50%	+8.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover20.3 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+22.5%	50%	+8.9%
10% ← realistic here	+10.8%	42%	-1.5%
15%	+0.1%	42%	-11.0%
20%	-9.7%	33%	-19.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 54% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +35% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +69% → late +2% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$22 vs −$19 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.28 per $1 lost it wins $2.28

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$115

Realized+$135

Unrealized+$5

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses8 / 4

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions2

Markets (closed)12 / 14

History coverage2d

Avg bet$43

Trades / day20.3

Drawdown50%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$80	$86	+$6 (+7%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	Under	56¢	56¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Jun 24	$48	+$22	+46%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 24	$61	−$11	-18%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$41	−$3	-7%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$74	−$62	-84%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 23	$31	+$26	+83%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$21	+$1	+6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$60	+$10	+16%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$31	+$65	+212%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Jun 23	$26	+$29	+114%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$46	+$4	+8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$25	+$16	+65%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	Jun 22	$25	$0	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	56¢	$30	29m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	68¢	$48	1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	14¢	$8	1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$20	1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	14¢	$38	1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	16¢	$21	2h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	25¢	$42	2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	54¢	$9	4h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	SELL Yes	37¢	$0	4h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	55¢	$30	4h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	SELL Yes	35¢	$39	4h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	66¢	$23	5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	6¢	$22	5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	5h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	80¢	$0	5h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	80¢	$11	5h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	81¢	$12	5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	4¢	$10	5h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	SELL Yes	15¢	$17	5h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$82	6h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	13¢	$21	14h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$41	14h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$31	14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$60	14h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	SELL Yes	51¢	$55	21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	19¢	$5	21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	33¢	$5	22h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	38¢	$10	22h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	36¢	$10	22h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	92¢	$46	29h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.33 · official $115.33 (match) · 40 history records