Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:36:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3A 0x3acc…06a3 world 122 markets active 0h ago coverage 588d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,142 (+2%) realized +$1,142 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate91%103W / 10L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$513per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$53
14 days+$69
30 days+$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$251
politics 16% +$202
finance 14% +$15
other 6% +$55
crypto 6% +$592
sports 1% +$10
culture 1% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 29 +0.6% -9.0% 90% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 96 +1.0% -8.6% 90% 4% -9.1%
all 113 +4.1% -5.8% 91% 10% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 10% -7.8%
10% -14.8% 5% -16.6%
15% -23.0% 4% -24.6%
20% -30.6% 4% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$698) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$27 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.93 per $1 lost it wins $7.93
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage
Net worth$1,117
Realized+$1,142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses103 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)113 / 122
History coverage588d
Avg bet$513
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 15 $170 +$2 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Jun 15 $939 +$2 +0%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 15 $566 +$22 +4%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 13 $700 +$24 +3%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $598 +$1 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $392 +$2 +0%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 09 $179 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $204 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $299 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 09 $620 +$8 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 08 $1,265 +$4 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $195 −$2 -1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 07 $3 $0 +0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 05 $998 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $995 +$5 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 02 $299 +$1 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 30 $1,389 +$5 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $498 +$1 +0%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 24 $498 +$2 +0%
Will Trump say "Jerome" or "Powell" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in c May 22 $20 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Job" during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony? May 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 22 $118 +$2 +1%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $2,432 +$12 +0%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 21 $90 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 20 $1,464 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 18 $923 +$2 +0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 18 $186 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? May 17 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 17 $1,273 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? May 17 $293 +$1 +0%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? May 17 $299 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? May 16 $478 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? May 15 $196 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? May 15 $198 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May? May 14 $199 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? May 14 $230 $0 +0%
Will Poland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 13 $392 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 11 $297 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 07 $178 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $960 +$6 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 05 $932 −$4 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 05 $439 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? May 05 $498 $0 -0%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 03 $399 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" this week? (April 27 - May 3) May 03 $200 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Paper tiger" this week? (April 27 - May 3) May 03 $200 $0 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $34 +$9 +27%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026? May 01 $699 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $697 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 29 $698 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes $4 9m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $16 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $112 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $181 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $63 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 1h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 100¢ $299 8h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 96¢ $78 14h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1 15h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $94 15h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $95 15h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $96 15h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $96 15h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $17 15h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 16h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 16h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 16h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 16h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 16h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 16h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 16h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 16h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 16h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 17h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 17h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 17h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 18h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,116.80 · official $1,116.80 (match) · 1050 history records