Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3acd…5b1b weather 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$658 (-14%) realized −$670 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate54%21W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$4
14 days−$12
30 days−$699
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$96
world 27% −$615
weather 22% −$26
politics 4% +$4
sports 2% +$46
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -25.3% -32.4% 48% 32% -9.0%
≤30d 39 -18.3% -26.1% 54% 21% -23.2%
≤90d 39 -18.3% -26.1% 54% 21% -23.2%
all 39 -18.3% -26.1% 54% 21% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 21% -23.2%
10% -33.2% 10% -30.6%
15% -39.6% 8% -37.3%
20% -45.5% 8% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$44 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized−$670
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses21 / 18
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)39 / 44
History coverage29d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $78 $82 +$4 (+6%)
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 50¢ 65¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+30%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 86¢ 88¢ $25 $25 +$1 (+3%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 69¢ $14 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $11 +$2 +21%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $26 +$7 +28%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $27 +$15 +56%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 +$3 +14%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $49 +$2 +4%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 16 $5 $0 -8%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $18 +$21 +119%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$20 +104%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $23 −$22 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 15 $73 +$3 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $7 +$2 +21%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $21 +$3 +16%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $104 −$4 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $59 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $98 −$14 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $73 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 10 $10 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $64 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $85 −$18 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $59 −$11 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $75 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 6? Jun 07 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $59 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $67 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $66 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $67 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $1,308 −$615 -47%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1,946 −$72 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 78¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 82¢ $11 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $18 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $19 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 32¢ $8 5h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 87¢ $21 17h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 23h
OpenAI IPO before 2027? SELL No 51¢ $4 25h
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY No 53¢ $5 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $18 26h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 34h
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY No 96¢ $49 44h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 47h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $14 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $19 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $0 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $9 2d
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 2d
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $23 2d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $14 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $25 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY No 86¢ $21 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $59 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? SELL Yes 82¢ $38 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 96¢ $45 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.94 · official $153.94 (match) · 95 history records