Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:13:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
3A 0x3ad1…94a9 other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$44 (-17%) realized −$43 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +299% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +261% what you keep after slip
Net edge+261%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$403
7 days+$332
14 days+$332
30 days+$332
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$300
sports 18% +$49
world 7% −$17
politics 5% −$2
crypto 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+260.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +336.1% +294.6% 50% 50% +132.7%
≤30d 6 +336.1% +294.6% 50% 50% +132.7%
≤90d 7 +298.6% +260.7% 57% 57% +131.0%
all 7 +298.6% +260.7% 57% 57% +131.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +260.7% 57% +131.0%
10% +226.2% 57% +108.9%
15% +194.6% 57% +88.7%
20% +165.8% 57% +70.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +180% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +299% · $-wt +180% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$24 · ×4.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.66 per $1 lost it wins $5.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$43
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage78d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 58¢ 42¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-27%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$355 +2298%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$24 +118%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $25 +$25 +101%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $79 −$54 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 01 $4 +$3 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $370 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 87¢ $44 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $49 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 4h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 7h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 46¢ $17 45h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 45h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $17 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 48¢ $55 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 47¢ $23 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 2d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY Yes 58¢ $8 62d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 78d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 78d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.35 · official $38.35 (match) · 57 history records