Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:21:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3A 0x3ad2…e0e0 crypto 280 markets active 2d ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (250 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$733 (+5%) realized +$733 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate29%81W / 201L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day250.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$30
14 days−$301
30 days−$342
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$322
other 0% −$8
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (250 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -36.1% -42.2% 38% 19% -29.6%
≤30d 282 -5.3% -14.3% 29% 4% -11.5%
≤90d 282 -5.3% -14.3% 29% 4% -11.5%
all 282 -5.3% -14.3% 29% 4% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover250.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 4% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 2% -20.0%
15% -30.0% 2% -27.7%
20% -36.9% 2% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$733
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses81 / 201
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)282 / 280
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$56
Trades / day250.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 282 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $12 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$3 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 10 $7 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $27 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $37 −$36 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 05 $30 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 05 $14 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 05 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 05 $32 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 05 $37 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 05 $37 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 05 $41 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 05 $43 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 05 $53 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 05 $50 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 05 $48 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 05 $42 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 05 $56 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 05 $59 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 05 $33 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 05 $45 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 05 $67 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 05 $65 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 40h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 42h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records