Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:47:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3ad4…83b8
sports · 277 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$1,023 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$933 · open −$49
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$58
Realized−$933
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses83 / 192
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)275 / 277
History coverage130d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 2 History 275 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$76
14 days+$76
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $47 $47 −$1 (-1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 11¢ $60 $11 −$48 (-81%)
Santiago: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Andrea Collarini Andrea Collarini 42¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Nets Nets $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? No 13¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Pelicans vs. Rockets Pelicans 30¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 15¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1: Closed Qualifier Playoffs EYEBALLERS 37¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Manufacture" or "Manufacturing" during Miami address? No 18¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs megoshort (BO3) - BC Game Masters Playoffs megoshort 14¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 44¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 M80 $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Up $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs MUERTA TEAM (BO3) - IZI WEX Group C MUERTA TEAM $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Down $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Down 11¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Down $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Down 29¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1: Closed Qualifier Playoffs Johnny Speeds $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 25¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Up 35¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Down 24¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Secret Whales (BO5) - First Stand Group A Team Secret Whales $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in Jun 12 $55 −$7 -12%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $53 +$2 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $185 +$88 +48%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 12 $31 −$8 -24%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 26 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 13 $10 −$9 -96%
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? May 13 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 05 $28 −$27 -98%
Will MrBeast's video get between 64 and 66 million views on day 3? Apr 20 $12 −$11 -96%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Apr 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 61 million views on day 2 Apr 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get 61 million or more views on day 2? Apr 19 $18 −$9 -48%
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees Apr 19 $10 $0 -3%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Apr 19 $11 +$7 +64%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? Apr 19 $8 $0 -6%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 19 $3 +$1 +46%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $220 −$162 -74%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $34 −$30 -89%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 07 $39 −$5 -12%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $30 +$9 +30%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Apr 06 $30 −$19 -64%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Apr 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Pistons vs. 76ers Apr 05 $50 +$25 +50%
Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 55 million views on day 1 Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Magic vs. Mavericks Apr 04 $232 +$79 +34%
Timberwolves vs. 76ers Apr 04 $100 +$13 +13%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 03 $4 −$4 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 03 $75 +$29 +38%
Kings vs. Raptors Apr 02 $17 +$8 +48%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 02 $180 +$88 +49%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Jets vs. Blackhawks Apr 01 $15 +$9 +56%
Raptors vs. Pistons Apr 01 $131 +$43 +33%
Hornets vs. Nets Mar 31 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $79 +$62 +78%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? Mar 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Canucks vs. Golden Knights Mar 31 $48 +$32 +66%
Suns vs. Grizzlies Mar 31 $39 +$8 +22%
76ers vs. Heat Mar 31 $69 −$29 -42%
Grand Prix Hassan II, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Rei Sakamoto Mar 30 $15 +$4 +28%
Knicks vs. Thunder Mar 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Rockets vs. Pelicans Mar 30 $52 +$16 +31%
Kings vs. Nets Mar 29 $34 +$19 +56%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 29 $25 +$8 +32%
Will Belarus win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $25 $0 +2%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 29 $37 −$37 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 43% +$121
other 15% −$323
world 15% +$92
politics 14% −$600
crypto 8% −$162
culture 3% −$111
tech 2% +$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 1h
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in SELL Yes 68¢ $48 2h
Will the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in BUY Yes 76¢ $55 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 26¢ $25 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 28¢ $30 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $53 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes $52 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes $20 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes $49 6h
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? SELL Yes $23 15h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 11¢ $34 15h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $16 24h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes $24 24h
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY Yes $31 25h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 16¢ $104 28h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $69 29h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 24¢ $59 30h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes $47 34h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $25 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 13¢ $96 4d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? BUY No $24 17d
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes $31 17d
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? BUY Yes $4 30d
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 30d
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 30d
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? BUY Yes $6 30d
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 38d
Will MrBeast's video get between 64 and 66 million views on day 3? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 53d
Will MrBeast's video get between 64 and 66 million views on day 3? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 53d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 61 million views on day 2 BUY Yes $5 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.6% -6.3% 50% 25% +11.6%
≤30d 6 -30.9% -37.5% 33% 17% -4.3%
≤90d 115 -19.5% -27.2% 36% 31% -6.8%
all 275 -16.2% -24.2% 30% 24% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 24% -22.8%
10% -31.4% 21% -30.2%
15% -38.1% 17% -36.9%
20% -44.1% 14% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.11 · official $58.11 (match) · 584 history records