Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:24:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3A 0x3ad4…a675 sports 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$792 (+15%) realized +$793 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%15W / 16L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$950
14 days+$1,088
30 days+$1,088
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$555
other 30% −$23
politics 7% +$76
crypto 7% +$228
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -1.6% -11.0% 52% 44% +10.0%
≤30d 28 +0.4% -9.2% 54% 46% +11.6%
≤90d 31 -4.4% -13.5% 48% 42% +5.4%
all 31 -4.4% -13.5% 48% 42% +5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 42% +5.4%
10% -21.8% 42% -4.7%
15% -29.3% 32% -13.9%
20% -36.3% 29% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$72 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized+$793
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses15 / 16
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage63d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $130 $129 −$1 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Over 13¢ 13¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $236 −$236 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,008 +$342 +34%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 −$26 -50%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $59 +$41 +69%
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 18 $44 −$34 -78%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $180 +$120 +66%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 −$2 -11%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $55 −$37 -67%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $304 +$80 +26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $254 −$133 -52%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $67 +$33 +49%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $82 +$48 +59%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$42 +83%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $203 +$164 +81%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $58 −$5 -10%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $27 −$4 -13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $366 +$228 +62%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $145 −$144 -99%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $35 −$28 -81%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $152 +$148 +98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $298 +$101 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $286 −$177 -62%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $87 +$7 +8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $379 +$498 +131%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $249 +$138 +56%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $300 −$190 -63%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Apr 17 $115 −$58 -51%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 17 $12 −$4 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 13¢ $27 1m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $130 9m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,350 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $1,008 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 74¢ $10 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 74¢ $75 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $3 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $34 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $20 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $8 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $20 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $26 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $39 3h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes $9 15h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $8 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 13¢ $25 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $51 17h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $100 18h
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 18h
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? BUY Yes 43¢ $44 19h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 59¢ $21 19h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 59¢ $38 19h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 21h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 22h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 22h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 22h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 22h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 22h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $300 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 20¢ $20 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.00 · official $155.00 (match) · 132 history records