Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:08:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3ad5…74b4
crypto · 700 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$730 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$728 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$728
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses308 / 385
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)693 / 700
History coverage12d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day78.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 7 History 693 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$431
7 days−$596
14 days−$728
30 days−$728
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? No 83¢ 91¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 94¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 14? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or below on June 14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or below on June 14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Alexis Galarneau Roman Safiullin 31¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 4? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$4 +190%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +140%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +101%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +166%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +140%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +146%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +110%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 63% −$474
other 14% −$52
weather 12% −$160
politics 10% −$34
sports 1% −$10
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 37m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 634 -11.6% -20.0% 45% 43% -25.9%
≤30d 693 -10.1% -18.7% 44% 41% -25.7%
≤90d 693 -10.1% -18.7% 44% 41% -25.7%
all 693 -10.1% -18.7% 44% 41% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover78.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 41% -25.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 39% -32.8%
15% -33.6% 34% -39.3%
20% -40.1% 31% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.29 · official $4.30 (match) · 1247 history records