Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:33:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3ad7…dc0c other 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,175 (+1%) realized +$1,173 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate19%26W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$783per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$739now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$10
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$117
politics 38% −$32
sports 10% +$1,318
economics 4% −$5
culture 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$4
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 52 +2.2% -7.6% 8% 2% -7.9%
all 140 -0.2% -9.7% 19% 11% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 11% -8.5%
10% -18.4% 11% -17.3%
15% -26.3% 9% -25.3%
20% -33.5% 5% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,064) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$4 · ×14.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.28 per $1 lost it wins $3.28
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$739
Realized+$1,173
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses26 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage163d
Avg bet$783
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $737 $739 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $2,121 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $212 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $557 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $236 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $946 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $324 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $2,451 −$4 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2,990 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,116 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $950 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $1,986 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $3,318 −$4 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $1,599 −$2 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,507 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,558 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $2,614 −$4 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $573 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 02 $778 +$1 +0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $862 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,518 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,256 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $2,325 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,661 −$3 -0%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 07 $1,060 +$1,245 +117%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,042 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,054 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,061 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,057 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $1,064 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,020 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,423 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 16 $1,064 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,063 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,241 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,518 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $1,483 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $1,067 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,067 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $1,078 −$1 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March? Apr 02 $66 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $831 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 28 $1,498 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $214 1h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $214 2h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $212 2h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $212 5h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $380 44h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $380 46h
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $418 7d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $418 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $556 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $557 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $236 8d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $236 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $549 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $550 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $737 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $324 12d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $937 12d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $324 12d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $939 13d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $997 14d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $998 14d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $893 14d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $894 15d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,114 15d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,116 15d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $949 15d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $950 15d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,073 18d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,075 19d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,391 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $738.95 · official $738.95 (match) · 422 history records