Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:56:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3adc…a28e other 252 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 241L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$14
14 days−$23
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$45
sports 23% −$21
politics 7% −$6
economics 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$2
culture 5% −$5
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 80 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 192 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 1% -9.7%
all 252 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)252 / 252
History coverage128d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 252 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $96 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $157 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $94 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $447 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $93 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $214 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $409 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $210 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $144 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $159 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $353 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $214 −$1 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $193 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $374 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $312 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $329 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $250 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $123 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $136 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $292 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $45 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $272 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 11 $449 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $258 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $226 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $47 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $134 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $274 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $293 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 09 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $284 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $493 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $250 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $200 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $226 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $48 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 07 $487 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $106 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $42 20m
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $42 1h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $42 3h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $42 4h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 6h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 7h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $42 10h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $42 12h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $42 13h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $43 15h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $43 19h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $43 20h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 22h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 24h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 25h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 27h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $43 28h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $43 29h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $43 32h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $43 34h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $43 34h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $43 35h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $43 38h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $43 40h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 40h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 41h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $43 43h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $43 44h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $43 47h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $43 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1357 history records