Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3A 0x3add…f0cc crypto 1709 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$32 (-1%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate74%1497W / 530L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day63.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,023
7 days−$1,012
14 days−$1,007
30 days−$999
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$14
other 0% $0
finance 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 848 -39.1% -44.9% 54% 21% -40.4%
≤30d 1942 -16.7% -24.6% 73% 40% -25.0%
≤90d 2027 -16.1% -24.1% 74% 40% -24.5%
all 2027 -16.1% -24.1% 74% 40% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.1% 40% -24.5%
10% ← realistic here -31.3% 4% -31.7%
15% -38.0% 0% -38.3%
20% -44.0% 0% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses1497 / 530
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2027 / 1709
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day63.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2027 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1357%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1594%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$4 -1493%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -750%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -2672%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$5 -3853%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$4 -2671%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -2211%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -681%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1544%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -1200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$4 -1605%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$8 -3702%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -863%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1551%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -863%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1350%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -1001%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.09 · official $1.09 (match) · 3500 history records