Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:28:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3ade…78e9 other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%1W / 20L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$354per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$5
politics 36% −$4
culture 15% −$2
crypto 4% $0
world 3% $0
sports 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 15 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 21 -0.7% -10.2% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses1 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage96d
Avg bet$354
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 29 $31 $0 -0%
Will Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 29 $66 $0 -0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 29 $1,269 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 29 $1,108 −$2 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 28 $1,192 −$2 -0%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 28 $1,244 −$1 -0%
Will Laura Siegemund be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 28 $1,184 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 18 $7 $0 -3%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? Apr 17 $181 −$1 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 16 $185 −$2 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $179 −$1 -0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Apr 16 $181 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 16 $180 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Apr 13 $4 $0 -9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 23-29? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Mar 30 $143 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Mar 25 $126 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $33 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? SELL No 100¢ $31 16m
Will Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $66 26m
Will Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $29 35m
Will Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $15 53m
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 99¢ $1,267 1h
Will Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $23 1h
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 99¢ $1,248 1h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $817 1h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $289 2h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 99¢ $21 2h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,108 2h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,190 14h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 14h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 14h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,178 15h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 15h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $1,243 15h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 15h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,224 15h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 15h
Will Laura Siegemund be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 100¢ $918 15h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $20 15h
Will Laura Siegemund be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 100¢ $264 16h
Will Laura Siegemund be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,184 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $7 72d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $7 72d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? SELL No 98¢ $181 72d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $181 72d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 97¢ $183 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records