Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:09:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3ade…b5bc crypto 597 markets active 14h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,195 (-12%) realized −$9,195 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%296W / 302L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$463
7 days−$463
14 days−$463
30 days−$463
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$10,808
other 3% −$279
sports 0% +$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +12.3% +1.6% 59% 56% -15.0%
≤30d 39 +12.3% +1.6% 59% 56% -15.0%
≤90d 515 -3.1% -12.3% 50% 48% -22.6%
all 598 -3.1% -12.3% 49% 48% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 48% -22.6%
10% -20.7% 46% -30.0%
15% -28.4% 44% -36.8%
20% -35.4% 40% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$130 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9,195
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses296 / 302
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)598 / 597
History coverage138d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 598 Trades
no open positions (125 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $459 −$459 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 25 $207 −$136 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $210 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $207 +$33 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$14 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $102 +$38 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $309 +$89 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 24 $155 +$127 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $60 +$95 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$28 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 24 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$86 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$23 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $414 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 24 $208 −$166 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $310 +$276 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 24 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $207 +$199 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $621 −$621 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $623 −$623 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $311 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $314 +$383 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $311 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $415 +$433 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $517 +$472 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $313 +$436 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $208 +$234 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$56 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $103 +$33 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$22 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$41 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 04 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 04 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 04 $57 +$22 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 04 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 04 $150 +$125 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 04 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 04 $91 −$81 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 04 $124 +$110 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 04 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 04 $155 +$62 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 04 $93 −$89 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $71 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $212 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $240 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $103 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $12 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $69 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $282 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $8 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1608 history records