Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:40:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
3A 0x3adf…2380 sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 184d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$11,318 (+32%) realized +$11,529 · open −$211
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$1,747per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$323est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$4,596now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12,829
7 days+$11,215
14 days+$11,215
30 days+$11,215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$8,602
other 33% +$2,053
world 2% +$119
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +24.8% +13.0% 73% 73% +28.4%
≤30d 11 +24.8% +13.0% 73% 73% +28.4%
≤90d 12 +15.2% +4.2% 67% 67% +27.4%
all 18 +14.3% +3.4% 56% 56% +23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 56% +23.5%
10% -6.5% 50% +11.7%
15% -15.5% 50% +0.9%
20% -23.8% 44% -9.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$2,547) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,545 vs −$559 · ×2.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.45 per $1 lost it wins $3.45
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage
Net worth$4,596
Realized+$11,529
Unrealized−$211
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$323
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage184d
Avg bet$1,747
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $4,693 $4,485 −$207 (-4%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 61¢ 59¢ $114 $110 −$4 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $5,489 +$2,369 +43%
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $3,542 +$2,285 +64%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $303 +$479 +158%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $268 +$173 +64%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $7,128 +$4,803 +67%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $1,929 +$1,172 +61%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $1,496 −$1,496 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $3,586 +$3,544 +99%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 19 $507 −$500 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1,769 −$1,733 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $752 +$119 +16%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $228 −$208 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 7? Mar 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 6? Mar 06 $10 +$15 +151%
Will Paradex launch a token by March 31 2026? Mar 05 $119 −$104 -87%
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? Mar 05 $366 +$490 +134%
Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 19 $6 $0 -6%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 29 $2,547 −$408 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 61¢ $115 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $693 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $3,862 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $3,994 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $3,996 2h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 69¢ $5,489 6h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $4,274 6h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) SELL FURIA 100¢ $781 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 100¢ $441 6h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,553 6h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY FURIA 38¢ $303 8h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $268 8h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 60¢ $2,530 9h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 60¢ $1,012 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 87¢ $2,383 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 34¢ $102 24h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $1,018 24h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 45¢ $718 25h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 44¢ $102 25h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 45¢ $102 25h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 45¢ $98 25h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 53¢ $406 25h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 51¢ $101 25h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $2,220 25h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1,110 25h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $1,935 27h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $5,193 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $7,130 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 42¢ $1,326 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,595.55 · official $4,595.55 (match) · 76 history records