Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T18:39:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3ae1…befb
sports · 724 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$19,175 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$25,484 · open −$371
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$982
Realized−$25,484
Unrealized−$371
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses408 / 350
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$3,517
Open positions3
Markets (closed)758 / 724
History coverage74d
Avg bet$422
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 758 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10,007
7 days−$9,126
14 days−$7,317
30 days−$17,692
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 67¢ 69¢ $497 $515 +$18 (+4%)
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs G2 Esports 62¢ 38¢ $758 $467 −$291 (-38%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Legacy 44¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs 3DMAX 30¢ 0¢ $305 $0 −$305 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Team Spirit 36¢ 0¢ $259 $0 −$259 (-100%)
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Xtreme Gaming 35¢ 0¢ $175 $0 −$175 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 45¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Astralis 52¢ 0¢ $141 $0 −$141 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 56¢ 0¢ $651 $0 −$651 (-100%)
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner Natus Vincere 15¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2 Dplus KIA Challengers 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage PARIVISION 40¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2 HANJIN BRION Challengers 28¢ 0¢ $285 $0 −$285 (-100%)
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana LNG Esports 75¢ 0¢ $258 $0 −$258 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster 32¢ 0¢ $420 $0 −$420 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 3DMAX - Map 1 Winner 3DMAX 62¢ 0¢ $247 $0 −$247 (-100%)
Dota 2: Heroic vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Virtus.pro 16¢ 0¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner BetBoom Team 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Nongshim Red Force 33¢ 0¢ $367 $0 −$367 (-100%)
LoL: Vitality.Bee vs Joblife (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Joblife 54¢ 0¢ $450 $0 −$450 (-100%)
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Natus Vincere 34¢ 0¢ $347 $0 −$347 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 4 Winner Team Falcons 27¢ 0¢ $501 $0 −$501 (-100%)
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner Sentinels 42¢ 0¢ $690 $0 −$690 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner FaZe 63¢ 0¢ $259 $0 −$259 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 46¢ 0¢ $341 $0 −$341 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Jun 14 $120 −$120 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jun 14 $235 −$235 -100%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs WHITEBIRD (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #15 Gro Jun 14 $360 −$360 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Jun 14 $285 −$285 -100%
LoL: Diversion Gaming vs eSuba (BO1) - Hitpoint Masters Group Stage Jun 14 $137 −$137 -100%
LoL: BK ROG Esports vs Joblife (BO1) - LFL Invitational Souper Group Jun 14 $379 −$379 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO1) - CBLOL Cup Regular Season Jun 14 $552 −$552 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs GIANTX (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 14 $328 −$328 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $822 −$822 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Jun 14 $809 −$809 -100%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs MINLATE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #14 Jun 14 $137 −$137 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DN SOOPers - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $388 −$388 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $107 −$126 -118%
LoL: Anubis Gaming vs 3BL Esports (BO3) - Arabian League Group Stage Jun 14 $308 −$308 -100%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Jun 14 $714 −$714 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs SK Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $280 −$280 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $403 −$403 -100%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming - Game 4 Winne Jun 14 $468 −$468 -100%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs Game Hunters (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 14 $301 −$301 -100%
LoL: P11 Esports vs Zena Esports (BO1) - LIT Regular Season Jun 14 $298 −$298 -100%
LoL: One More Esports vs 3BL Esports (BO3) - Arabian League Group Stag Jun 14 $388 −$387 -100%
LoL: HMBLE vs P11 Esports (BO1) Jun 14 $290 −$290 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Jun 14 $435 −$434 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs LOUD (BO5) - First Stand Group B Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $205 −$205 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Solary (BO1) - LFL Invitational Super Group Jun 14 $162 −$162 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $244 −$244 -100%
LoL: LYON vs LOUD - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $316 −$316 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Solary - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $151 −$415 -275%
LoL: Team Heretics vs G2 Esports (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 14 $280 −$280 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $305 −$305 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $953 −$953 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs M80 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Jun 14 $341 −$341 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs Nexus (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Gr Jun 14 $248 −$248 -100%
LoL: GIANTX PRIDE vs Barça eSports (BO1) - LES Kick-off Group B Jun 14 $138 −$138 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs G2 Esports (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 14 $413 −$413 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $407 +$93 +23%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $224 +$276 +124%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $182 +$505 +277%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $285 +$361 +127%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $57 −$56 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $250 −$245 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $416 +$292 +70%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $720 −$716 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $215 −$197 -92%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $230 +$170 +74%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $138 +$149 +108%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $252 +$551 +218%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $655 +$169 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$13,164
other 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $183 12m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $319 13m
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 44¢ $101 1h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 62¢ $129 1h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 62¢ $39 1h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 62¢ $170 1h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 62¢ $26 1h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 62¢ $7 1h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 62¢ $4 1h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 62¢ $33 1h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 63¢ $216 1h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 63¢ $136 1h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 25¢ $57 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 81¢ $407 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 44¢ $224 3h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 39¢ $4 5h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 44¢ $170 5h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 44¢ $6 5h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 44¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 44¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 44¢ $9 5h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 44¢ $11 5h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 44¢ $6 5h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 44¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 44¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 44¢ $76 5h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 24¢ $87 5h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 28¢ $95 5h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 20¢ $78 6h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 19¢ $97 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 128 -19.3% -27.0% 43% 40% -26.0%
≤30d 328 -9.5% -18.1% 50% 48% -21.9%
≤90d 758 -8.7% -17.4% 54% 48% -16.7%
all 758 -8.7% -17.4% 54% 48% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 48% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 36% -24.6%
15% -32.5% 27% -31.9%
20% -39.1% 19% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $982.35 · official $982.43 (match) · 3500 history records