Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:26:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3ae4…7084 other 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$185 (-8%) realized −$148 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day24.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$262
sports 16% −$304
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-51.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -46.4% -51.5% 31% 31% -45.6%
≤30d 13 -46.4% -51.5% 31% 31% -45.6%
≤90d 13 -46.4% -51.5% 31% 31% -45.6%
all 13 -46.4% -51.5% 31% 31% -45.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -51.5% 31% -45.6%
10% ← realistic here -56.2% 23% -50.8%
15% -60.4% 23% -55.5%
20% -64.3% 15% -59.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$79 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$264
Realized−$148
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day24.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $262 $264 +$2 (+1%)
DR Congo leading at halftime? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-95%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $981 −$237 -24%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $102 −$12 -12%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $253 −$250 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $40 +$26 +64%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$8 +16%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$55 +54%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $224 +$91 +41%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $265 25m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 31m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 33m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
DR Congo leading at halftime? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $733 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $123 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $91 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $302 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 25¢ $51 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $202 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $67 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $30 8h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $40 9h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $156 16h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 65¢ $51 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 18h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 22h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 95¢ $315 22h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $123 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.41 · official $264.42 (match) · 30 history records