Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:22:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3aed…b5fe other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+2%) realized +$28 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 25L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$5
world 36% +$2
sports 13% +$19
politics 4% $0
culture 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.7% -8.9% 43% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 15 +0.4% -9.2% 40% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 16 +5.3% -4.7% 44% 6% -5.7%
all 40 +2.5% -7.3% 38% 5% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 5% -7.5%
10% -16.1% 2% -16.4%
15% -24.2% 2% -24.4%
20% -31.7% 2% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×41.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×78.25 per $1 lost it wins $78.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage268d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 74¢ 72¢ $30 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $63 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $37 +$1 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $29 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $28 +$1 +4%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $28 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $28 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $4 $0 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $54 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $28 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 04 $24 +$19 +80%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 14 $46 +$5 +11%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $49 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $95 $0 -0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $56 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $24 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $28 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $27 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $30 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $31 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $30 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $20 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $10 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $30 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $33 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $23 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $31 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $3 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $30 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $30 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $30 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $21 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $9 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $9 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $7 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $13 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $11 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $29 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $28 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.73 · official $29.73 (match) · 166 history records