Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:26:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3aef…49d2
crypto · 2195 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$4,431 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4,431 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,431
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses995 / 623
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1618 / 2195
History coverage22d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day158.6
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1618 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,742
7 days−$2,869
14 days−$2,868
30 days+$4,431
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $350 $0 −$350 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $350 −$350 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$10,278
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $21 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $35 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $72 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $101 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $72 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $10 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $375 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $259 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $124 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $36 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 764 +0.7% -8.9% 47% 47% -29.1%
≤30d 1618 +26.9% +14.8% 61% 61% +4.0%
≤90d 1618 +26.9% +14.8% 61% 61% +4.0%
all 1618 +26.9% +14.8% 61% 61% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover158.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.8% 61% +4.0%
10% ← realistic here +3.8% 60% -5.9%
15% -6.2% 59% -15.0%
20% -15.4% 58% -23.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records