Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:12:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3A 0x3af2…4dc3 crypto 916 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$261 (+3%) realized +$261 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate68%623W / 293L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day23.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$190
sports 4% +$5
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -5.0% -14.1% 72% 8% -8.5%
≤30d 89 +4.5% -5.5% 66% 13% -7.6%
≤90d 916 -0.5% -10.0% 68% 45% -7.3%
all 916 -0.5% -10.0% 68% 45% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 45% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 32% -16.1%
15% -26.5% 22% -24.2%
20% -33.7% 13% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$261
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses623 / 293
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)916 / 916
History coverage64d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 916 Trades
no open positions (141 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $85 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $80 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $81 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $80 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $86 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$4 +198%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $70 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $79 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $74 +$4 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $74 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $78 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $77 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $77 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $76 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $77 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $78 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 01 $2 +$8 +391%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 01 $21 −$8 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 01 $118 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 01 $103 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 01 $108 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 31 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 31 $100 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 31 $101 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 31 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 30 $94 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 30 $20 +$4 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 30 $89 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 30 $1 $0 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 30 $88 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 30 $88 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 30 $90 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 30 $84 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 30 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 30 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 30 $96 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 30 $44 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $81 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $80 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $86 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $80 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $80 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $70 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $79 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $74 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $74 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $78 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $77 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $77 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $76 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $75 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $77 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1903 history records