Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:27:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3af2…5212
sports · 308 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3,654 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,587 · open −$283
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,489
Realized−$3,587
Unrealized−$283
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses110 / 164
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$288
Open positions34
Markets (closed)274 / 308
History coverage412d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 34 History 274 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$1,359
14 days+$1,084
30 days−$2,548
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 52¢ 51¢ $714 $698 −$16 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 84¢ 73¢ $695 $610 −$85 (-12%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Under 72¢ 80¢ $400 $441 +$41 (+10%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? No 80¢ 98¢ $337 $412 +$75 (+22%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 74¢ $300 $358 +$58 (+19%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 68¢ 68¢ $300 $299 −$1 (-0%)
Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026? No 60¢ 72¢ $242 $289 +$47 (+20%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $272 $284 +$12 (+5%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $200 $263 +$63 (+32%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 52¢ $351 $231 −$120 (-34%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 80¢ 63¢ $236 $186 −$50 (-21%)
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $145 $140 −$5 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 60¢ 79¢ $100 $132 +$32 (+32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $130 $128 −$2 (-2%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Under 87¢ 98¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 84¢ 84¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 84¢ 80¢ $94 $90 −$4 (-5%)
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 72¢ 77¢ $80 $86 +$6 (+8%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 73¢ 85¢ $73 $85 +$13 (+17%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 16¢ 18¢ $73 $80 +$7 (+9%)
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026? Yes 61¢ 61¢ $61 $61 +$0 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 68¢ 68¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $204 −$68 -34%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $606 +$335 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $201 +$43 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $305 −$110 -36%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$72 -70%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $302 +$57 +19%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $507 −$111 -22%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $40 +$10 +24%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $103 −$13 -13%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $0 $0 +10%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $723 +$261 +36%
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10 +$5 +50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $304 −$200 -66%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $406 −$237 -58%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $320 −$38 -12%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 10 $40 +$27 +67%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $493 −$486 -98%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 09 $41 −$30 -73%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $508 −$400 -79%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $65 −$65 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $100 +$15 +14%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $141 +$62 +44%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $51 −$50 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 07 $101 +$53 +52%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 07 $77 −$19 -24%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $87 −$27 -31%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 07 $202 +$62 +30%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 07 $1,988 −$3 -0%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 07 $210 +$60 +28%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $381 +$230 +60%
Will Pump.fun dip to $0.0014 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $22 +$16 +71%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 05 $247 +$54 +22%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $102 +$4 +4%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 03 $102 −$4 -4%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 03 $34 −$17 -50%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $34 −$33 -96%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $3,396 +$1,433 +42%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 02 $400 +$35 +9%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 02 $371 −$45 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $3,968 +$177 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $3,712 +$1,134 +30%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 01 $5 $0 +8%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $202 −$200 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 45% −$3,754
sports 27% −$1,600
world 14% +$1,152
politics 12% +$759
tech 1% −$323
crypto 0% −$55
finance 0% −$11
economics 0% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $101 44m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $101 52m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 83¢ $101 1h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Scotland 27¢ $135 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $100 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $101 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 2h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 2h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 3h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 53¢ $101 3h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $101 3h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $101 3h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 86¢ $100 3h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $202 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 30¢ $194 3h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $202 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 4h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 10¢ $30 4h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $102 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 5h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $102 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 5h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $358 5h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 90¢ $100 5h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 36¢ $168 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -28.4% -35.3% 38% 35% -24.6%
≤30d 111 -17.5% -25.3% 41% 35% -14.4%
≤90d 204 -15.4% -23.4% 39% 35% -16.3%
all 274 -8.5% -17.2% 40% 37% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 37% -14.4%
10% -25.1% 33% -22.6%
15% -32.4% 28% -30.1%
20% -39.0% 22% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,488.75 · official $5,489.07 (match) · 1365 history records