Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:20:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3af4…0055 sports 22 markets active 1d ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$493 (-28%) realized −$493 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate68%15W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days−$497
14 days−$497
30 days−$497
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$119
sports 36% −$628
crypto 16% +$26
world 2% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +2.9% -6.9% 70% 60% -34.8%
≤30d 20 +2.9% -6.9% 70% 60% -34.8%
≤90d 20 +2.9% -6.9% 70% 60% -34.8%
all 22 -1.6% -11.0% 68% 55% -34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 55% -34.8%
10% -19.5% 41% -41.0%
15% -27.3% 27% -46.7%
20% -34.4% 14% -51.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$93 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$493
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses15 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage147d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $259 +$38 +14%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$14 -45%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $562 +$81 +14%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $634 −$630 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $277 +$27 +10%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 +$2 +165%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $7 +$1 +18%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +104%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Mar 08 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Mar 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records