Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:34:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3A 0x3af4…6e19 crypto 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$300 (+4%) realized +$300 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$710per market
Trades / day55.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,307
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+46.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +61.5% +46.1% 80% 80% +45.4%
≤30d 10 +61.5% +46.1% 80% 80% +45.4%
≤90d 10 +61.5% +46.1% 80% 80% +45.4%
all 10 +61.5% +46.1% 80% 80% +45.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +46.1% 80% +45.4%
10% +32.1% 80% +31.5%
15% ← realistic here +19.4% 70% +18.8%
20% +7.6% 70% +7.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +61% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +61% · $-wt +61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
10.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$584 vs −$180 · ×3.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.94 per $1 lost it wins $12.94
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$300
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$710
Trades / day55.7
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 30 $305 +$95 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 30 $131 +$69 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 30 $398 −$198 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 30 $170 −$163 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 30 $5,156 +$3,444 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 30 $195 +$405 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 30 $360 +$240 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 29 $80 +$120 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 28 $197 +$203 +102%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 28 $107 +$93 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $167 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $138 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $131 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $188 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $67 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $142 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $6 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $82 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $81 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1,672 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1,348 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1,017 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $313 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $137 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $126 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $143 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $129 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records