Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3A 0x3af5…caeb crypto 737 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized +$34 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate67%491W / 242L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days−$61
14 days−$61
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$631
sports 8% +$4
other 1% −$88
world 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -3.4% -12.6% 67% 64% -12.8%
≤30d 43 -2.8% -12.0% 67% 65% -12.4%
≤90d 733 -1.2% -10.6% 67% 65% -12.5%
all 733 -1.2% -10.6% 67% 65% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 65% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 58% -20.9%
15% -26.9% 40% -28.5%
20% -34.1% 14% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$23 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses491 / 242
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions4
Markets (closed)733 / 737
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$29
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 733 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $74 $75 +$1 (+1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $74 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 55¢ 54¢ $74 $72 −$2 (-3%)
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Adrian Mannarino 56¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $40 +$11 +28%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $75 −$15 -20%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $40 +$22 +54%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $40 +$12 +29%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$7 +18%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $40 +$5 +12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $40 +$23 +58%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $40 +$11 +28%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $40 +$6 +14%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $40 +$15 +37%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$3 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $40 +$8 +21%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $40 +$11 +27%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $40 +$23 +57%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $40 +$12 +31%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$8 +21%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $40 +$5 +13%
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu Jun 16 $40 −$40 -99%
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 16 $40 −$5 -13%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $40 +$10 +26%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $40 +$11 +27%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $40 +$10 +26%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $40 +$19 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $40 −$18 -45%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $40 −$21 -52%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $40 +$6 +16%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $40 +$16 +40%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$27 -68%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $40 +$5 +13%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $40 +$12 +30%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 15 $40 −$1 -4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $40 +$29 +73%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $40 +$17 +41%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $40 +$6 +14%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $40 +$20 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 01 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Apr 26 $30 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Apr 26 $32 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Apr 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Apr 26 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Apr 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Apr 26 $27 +$12 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $75 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $75 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $75 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego SELL Ben Shelton 99¢ $51 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman SELL Laslo Djere 44¢ $58 2h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman SELL Laslo Djere 44¢ $2 2h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 54¢ $75 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $55 9h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $52 10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 84¢ $47 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $45 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 79¢ $7 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $40 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $40 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $40 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $40 12h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Ben Shelton 77¢ $40 12h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 56¢ $40 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $56 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 97¢ $51 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $46 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 76¢ $8 14h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $40 15h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 87¢ $19 15h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 80¢ $36 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $40 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $40 15h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 86¢ $43 15h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $48 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 SELL Over 93¢ $51 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.64 · official $220.64 (match) · 3500 history records