Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:35:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3af9…1a31 crypto 262 markets active 4d ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$70 (+3%) realized +$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate80%210W / 52L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$17
14 days+$16
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$17
world 12% +$9
weather 1% +$13
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 249 +3.2% -6.6% 81% 37% -8.7%
≤30d 255 +2.7% -7.1% 80% 37% -8.6%
≤90d 259 +2.3% -7.5% 80% 37% -14.2%
all 262 +3.4% -6.5% 80% 37% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 37% -7.9%
10% -15.4% 16% -16.7%
15% -23.6% 6% -24.7%
20% -31.1% 2% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses210 / 52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)262 / 262
History coverage111d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 262 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 621 history records