Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:23:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3afb…0004
sports · 249 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$1,900 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,741 · open +$66
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,061
Realized+$1,741
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses112 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$468
Open positions26
Markets (closed)224 / 249
History coverage22d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day152.5
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 26 History 224 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$792
7 days+$2,155
14 days+$2,016
30 days+$1,741
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 87¢ 96¢ $875 $958 +$84 (+10%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 91¢ 98¢ $364 $390 +$26 (+7%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 83¢ 86¢ $300 $313 +$13 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $264 $264 −$1 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 15¢ $261 $205 −$56 (-21%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 94¢ 92¢ $205 $199 −$5 (-3%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 93¢ 97¢ $150 $156 +$7 (+4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 6¢ 12¢ $78 $154 +$76 (+98%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $74 $87 +$13 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $48 $51 +$3 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $128 $48 −$80 (-62%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Hanwha Life Esports 52¢ 100¢ $15 $28 +$14 (+93%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-5%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-15%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner G2 59¢ 100¢ $15 $25 +$10 (+69%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 46¢ 53¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+15%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-15%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 18¢ 38¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+108%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-71%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner T1 49¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $308 −$308 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $15 +$6 +40%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$5 +50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 +$9 +188%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $15 +$20 +128%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $10 +$10 +97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $40 +$37 +93%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $12 +$7 +57%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $321 +$298 +93%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $405 +$95 +24%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $303 +$211 +69%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $304 −$304 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $100 +$97 +97%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $1 +$1 +65%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $100 +$97 +97%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $10 +$5 +46%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $305 +$377 +124%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $206 +$185 +90%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $21 +$9 +40%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $11 +$2 +20%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $304 −$188 -62%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $304 +$37 +12%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $305 −$305 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $304 −$304 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $304 +$251 +83%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $25 +$17 +70%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $5 +$5 +105%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $10 +$5 +48%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $27 +$19 +70%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $302 +$50 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $200 −$3 -2%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $260 −$6 -2%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $202 +$148 +73%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $202 −$202 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $203 +$217 +107%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $202 +$167 +83%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 09 $203 +$241 +119%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $16 +$5 +34%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $40 +$14 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 83% +$1,655
other 6% +$32
finance 4% +$102
politics 4% +$82
world 3% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 46¢ $1 26m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 46¢ $5 26m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 46¢ $1 26m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 46¢ $1 26m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 46¢ $1 26m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 46¢ $5 26m
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 66¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 64¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 63¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 59¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 59¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 59¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 59¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 59¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 29¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 29¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 29¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 31¢ $5 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $2 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $1 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $1 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $1 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $2 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $1 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $1 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $1 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $5 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $72 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $100 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 +7.7% -2.6% 58% 56% +6.4%
≤30d 224 +8.7% -1.6% 50% 47% -3.6%
≤90d 224 +8.7% -1.6% 50% 47% -3.6%
all 224 +8.7% -1.6% 50% 47% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover152.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.6% 47% -3.6%
10% ← realistic here -11.1% 42% -12.9%
15% -19.6% 38% -21.3%
20% -27.5% 31% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,060.51 · official $3,060.51 (match) · 3500 history records