Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:33:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3A 0x3afd…0a9a other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$25 (-7%) realized +$15 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$13
crypto 33% −$27
sports 26% +$22
world 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-44.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -38.5% -44.3% 50% 50% +0.9%
≤30d 2 -38.5% -44.3% 50% 50% +0.9%
≤90d 2 -38.5% -44.3% 50% 50% +0.9%
all 2 -38.5% -44.3% 50% 50% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.3% 50% +0.9%
10% -49.7% 50% -8.7%
15% -54.5% 0% -17.5%
20% -59.0% 0% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$10 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 7
History coverage6d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $120 $93 −$27 (-22%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $45 $53 +$8 (+19%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $35 $17 −$17 (-50%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $97 +$22 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 15¢ $51 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 5d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $26 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $97 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.36 · official $165.36 (match) · 19 history records