Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:12:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3A
0x3afd…9f43
crypto · 476 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$68 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$44 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses369 / 107
Open positions0
Markets (closed)476 / 476
History coverage88d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 476 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days−$75
14 days−$27
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $180 $0 −$180 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on March 25? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $320 $0 −$320 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$6 -55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$10 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$9 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $46 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$2 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $67 −$65 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $325 −$320 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $323 +$64 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $239 +$88 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $185 −$180 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $81 +$27 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $55 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $188 +$33 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $76 +$22 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $41 +$13 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $61 +$14 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $159 +$81 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $142 +$33 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $112 +$32 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $82 +$40 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $45 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $81 +$15 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$8 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$40
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $13 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $5 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 410 +0.8% -8.8% 80% 48% -10.6%
≤30d 457 +0.5% -9.1% 80% 48% -9.9%
≤90d 476 -1.9% -11.3% 78% 47% -10.1%
all 476 -1.9% -11.3% 78% 47% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 47% -10.1%
10% -19.8% 28% -18.7%
15% -27.5% 14% -26.6%
20% -34.6% 8% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1250 history records