Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
3A 0x3afe…ceec crypto 108 markets active 1d ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$104 (-6%) realized −$97 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate72%77W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$196
other 5% +$25
sports 5% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +65.6% +49.8% 100% 100% +54.2%
≤30d 4 +26.1% +14.1% 75% 75% +33.6%
≤90d 107 -5.1% -14.2% 72% 62% -15.9%
all 107 -5.1% -14.2% 72% 62% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 62% -15.9%
10% -22.4% 37% -23.9%
15% -29.9% 16% -31.3%
20% -36.8% 6% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$97
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses77 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage65d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $31 $24 −$7 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$14 +90%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $35 +$26 +73%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce May 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce May 08 $27 +$18 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 04 $6 +$9 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 04 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 04 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 03 $21 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 03 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $30 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 15 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 15 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 15 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 15 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 15 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 15 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 15 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 15 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 15 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 15 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 15 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 15 $15 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 15 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 15 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 15 $15 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 15 $15 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 15 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 15 $15 −$6 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 15 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 15 $16 +$2 +12%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $20 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 14 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 14 $10 −$5 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 14 $10 −$9 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 14 $21 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 14 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 14 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 14 $10 +$3 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $15 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $32 6d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 57¢ $35 18d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 32¢ $10 26d
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce SELL Zalgiris Kaunas 90¢ $45 39d
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Zalgiris Kaunas 54¢ $27 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $6 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $20 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $20 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $20 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $32 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $21 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $5 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 62d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $15 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $15 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $18 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $15 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $18 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $15 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $15 62d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.34 · official $24.34 (match) · 260 history records