Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:48:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b00…c1f7 crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-11%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate59%10W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -21.5% -28.9% 59% 53% -31.1%
≤30d 17 -21.5% -28.9% 59% 53% -31.1%
≤90d 17 -21.5% -28.9% 59% 53% -31.1%
all 17 -21.5% -28.9% 59% 53% -31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.9% 53% -31.1%
10% ← realistic here -35.7% 41% -37.7%
15% -42.0% 12% -43.7%
20% -47.6% 6% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Up 53¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.95 · official $0.95 (match) · 40 history records