Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:52:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
3B 0x3b00…d78b other 72 markets active 1d ago coverage 282d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,640 (+6%) realized +$396 · open +$1,244
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate57%37W / 28L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$365per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$5,470now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$52
14 days+$52
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$87
finance 25% +$1,491
sports 12% −$38
politics 2% −$251
tech 1% +$20
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +17.4% +6.2% 100% 75% +9.7%
≤30d 10 +0.4% -9.2% 80% 70% -7.2%
≤90d 29 -8.8% -17.5% 66% 55% -12.8%
all 65 -3.6% -12.8% 57% 42% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 42% -9.3%
10% -21.1% 31% -17.9%
15% -28.8% 14% -25.9%
20% -35.7% 8% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$142 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

282d coverage
Net worth$5,470
Realized+$396
Unrealized+$1,244
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses37 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions7
Markets (closed)65 / 72
History coverage282d
Avg bet$365
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026? No 50¢ 68¢ $2,410 $3,304 +$894 (+37%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 74¢ 97¢ $538 $709 +$171 (+32%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $647 $601 −$46 (-7%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 71¢ 92¢ $435 $563 +$128 (+29%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? No 61¢ 92¢ $192 $290 +$97 (+51%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+9%)
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? No 71¢ 88¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 16 $68 +$5 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 14 $115 +$40 +35%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $58 +$6 +11%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 14 $6 +$1 +16%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June? May 26 $1,445 −$510 -35%
Will Igor Thiago be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 23 $872 +$233 +27%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 23 $137 +$65 +47%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? May 23 $291 +$59 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 23 $511 +$173 +34%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? May 18 $1,735 −$15 -1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June? May 18 $544 −$538 -99%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? May 18 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $97 +$30 +30%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 10 $32 −$19 -60%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 10 $766 −$440 -58%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $233 +$177 +76%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 26 $1,176 +$295 +25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 26 $452 +$72 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 18 $379 −$379 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Apr 18 $127 +$35 +28%
Will a team from Italy be the 2026 Europa League winner? Apr 17 $52 +$3 +5%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem Apr 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Apr 14 $268 −$189 -71%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of March? Apr 01 $523 +$45 +9%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March? Apr 01 $1,604 +$701 +44%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? Mar 25 $1,266 +$273 +22%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? Mar 24 $125 +$32 +25%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March? Mar 24 $1,005 −$499 -50%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 20 $100 +$34 +34%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of March? Mar 19 $1,353 +$135 +10%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 19 $89 −$8 -9%
Will Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 19 $288 +$118 +41%
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 19 $40 +$13 +32%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Will a team from Italy be the 2026 Champions League winner? Mar 19 $962 +$3 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $12 −$11 -92%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $61 +$205 +336%
Will Bodø/Glimt reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Mar 18 $74 +$32 +43%
Will Bodø/Glimt reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 17 $283 −$185 -65%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11? Mar 17 $1 +$2 +138%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? Mar 16 $1,474 +$512 +35%
Will Inter Milan advance to the round of 16? Feb 25 $107 +$6 +5%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? Feb 13 $86 +$2 +3%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Feb 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Feb 08 $171 −$171 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more? Feb 04 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? Feb 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Feb 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Feb 01 $109 +$7 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $73 28h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $121 36h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $121 36h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $195 38h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $195 38h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $74 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $74 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $87 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $2 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $10 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $15 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $42 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $155 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $125 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $126 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $64 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 90¢ $58 3d
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026? BUY No 37¢ $1 3d
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? SELL No 88¢ $52 3d
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026? BUY No 44¢ $9 23d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June? SELL No 19¢ $7 23d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June? SELL No 24¢ $2 23d
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026? BUY No 50¢ $176 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? SELL No 95¢ $175 25d
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026? BUY No 50¢ $371 25d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 79¢ $39 25d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $129 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? SELL No 88¢ $203 25d
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026? BUY No 50¢ $245 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,470.50 · official $5,470.35 (match) · 512 history records