Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:34:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3B 0x3b02…5899 other 141 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-0%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate11%16W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$12
politics 36% −$14
sports 11% −$6
crypto 5% −$1
economics 4% −$1
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 94 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 140 -1.0% -10.4% 11% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 4% -9.6%
10% -19.0% 2% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×4.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses16 / 124
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage134d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $33 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $443 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Jun 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $39 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 26 $205 $0 +0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $481 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 14 $190 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $219 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $189 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $408 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $379 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $242 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $232 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $675 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $219 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $220 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $191 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $219 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 01 $200 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $192 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $207 $0 -0%
Will Reilly Opelka win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 30 $179 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $428 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $235 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $261 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $449 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $187 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $238 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 24 $261 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $264 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 21 $403 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $399 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $426 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $152 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $157 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 19 $155 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $215 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $167 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 18 $188 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $200 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $216 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $170 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $183 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 2d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 2d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 3d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 3d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 4d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 10d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 14d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $28 15d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $28 16d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 16d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 23d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $192 23d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $192 28d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $205 28d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $205 29d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $232 31d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $232 34d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $190 39d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $190 46d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $219 46d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 47d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 47d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 47d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $204 48d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $204 48d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $192 48d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $192 48d
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $242 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.98 · official $30.98 (match) · 432 history records