Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:39:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3B
0x3b03…637c
crypto · 52 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$184 +21%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$85 · open −$11
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$111
Realized+$85
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses23 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)47 / 52
History coverage16d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 5 History 47 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$105
7 days+$105
14 days+$105
30 days+$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $67 $66 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$10 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $62 −$9 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$11 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$8 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$6 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$19 +353%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$20 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$8 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$12 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$10 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $21 +$133 +649%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 29 $21 −$20 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 71% −$22
other 23% −$6
sports 6% +$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $7 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $21 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $25 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $31 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +9.8% -0.6% 50% 48% +5.5%
≤30d 47 +7.5% -2.7% 49% 47% +2.4%
≤90d 47 +7.5% -2.7% 49% 47% +2.4%
all 47 +7.5% -2.7% 49% 47% +2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 47% +2.4%
10% -12.0% 38% -7.4%
15% -20.5% 28% -16.3%
20% -28.3% 23% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.06 · official $111.06 (match) · 156 history records